for Thursday, 21 February 2013 [6:40 PM PhT]
for Thursday, 21 February 2013 [6:40 PM PhT]
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) was relocated over the southern portion of the South China Sea...about 580 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan or 419 km NW of Brunei...currently moving west with a forward speed of 24 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 02W (Crising) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 02W (Crising) is expected to continue moving west to west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 02W (Crising) will be just along the open waters of the South China Sea through Friday evening.
02W (Crising) is forecast to maintain its strength during the next 12 hours and will dissipate into an area of low pressure on Friday.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Dissipating over the South China Sea, just an area of low pressure (Tropical Disturbance)...about 591 km south-southwest of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6PM FEB 22: 5.6N 105.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - spreading across the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Southern Palawan. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-55 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and near the center of 02W (Crising).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu February 21, 2013
Class/Name: TD 02W (Crising)
Location of Center: 7.2º N Lat 111.9º E Lon (Relocated)
Distance 1: 580 km WSW of Balabac, Palawan
Distance 2: 419 km NW of Brunei
Distance 3: 507 km SSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 4: 630 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 5: 697 km SE of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
